Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
